Precious Metals Ultrasector Fund Market Value
| PMPSX Fund | USD 55.06 0.81 1.49% |
| Symbol | Precious |
Precious Metals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Precious Metals' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Precious Metals.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Precious Metals on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Precious Metals Ultrasector or generate 0.0% return on investment in Precious Metals over 90 days. Precious Metals is related to or competes with Franklin Natural, Spirit Of, Vanguard Energy, Oil Gas, and Fidelity Advisor. The fund invests in financial instruments that the fund Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns ... More
Precious Metals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Precious Metals' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Precious Metals Ultrasector upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.02 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1762 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.25) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.92 |
Precious Metals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Precious Metals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Precious Metals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Precious Metals historical prices to predict the future Precious Metals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1308 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4804 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.7692 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1701 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5792 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Precious Metals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Precious Metals Ultr Backtested Returns
Precious Metals appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Precious Metals Ultr maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.17, which implies the entity had a 0.17 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Precious Metals Ultr, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please evaluate Precious Metals' Semi Deviation of 2.69, risk adjusted performance of 0.1308, and Coefficient Of Variation of 703.15 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund holds a Beta of 0.7, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Precious Metals' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Precious Metals is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Precious Metals Ultrasector has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Precious Metals time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Precious Metals Ultr price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current Precious Metals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.34 |
Precious Metals Ultr lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Precious Metals mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Precious Metals' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Precious Metals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Precious Metals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Precious Metals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Precious Metals mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Precious Metals mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Precious Metals mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Precious Metals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Precious Metals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Precious Metals mutual fund have on its future price. Precious Metals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Precious Metals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Precious Metals mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Precious Metals Ultrasector.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Precious Mutual Fund
Precious Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Precious Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Precious with respect to the benefits of owning Precious Metals security.
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