Polski Koncern (Poland) Market Value
| PKN Stock | 67.39 0.76 1.14% |
| Symbol | Polski |
Polski Koncern 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polski Koncern's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polski Koncern.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Polski Koncern on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polski Koncern Naftowy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polski Koncern over 90 days. Polski Koncern is related to or competes with Examobile, Echo Investment, MBank SA, Quantum Software, Mercator Medical, Gaming Factory, and Creotech Instruments. More
Polski Koncern Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polski Koncern's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polski Koncern Naftowy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3018 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.26 |
Polski Koncern Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polski Koncern's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polski Koncern's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polski Koncern historical prices to predict the future Polski Koncern's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2146 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3979 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.5886 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.257 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.01 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polski Koncern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Polski Koncern Naftowy Backtested Returns
Polski Koncern appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Polski Koncern Naftowy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.4, which implies the firm had a 0.4 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Polski Koncern's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.57% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate Polski Koncern's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2146, coefficient of variation of 414.64, and Semi Deviation of 1.54 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Polski Koncern holds a performance score of 31. The company holds a Beta of 0.13, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Polski Koncern's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Polski Koncern is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Polski Koncern's treynor ratio, kurtosis, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether Polski Koncern's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.93 |
Excellent predictability
Polski Koncern Naftowy has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polski Koncern time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polski Koncern Naftowy price movement. The serial correlation of 0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current Polski Koncern price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.89 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.03 |
Polski Koncern Naftowy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Polski Koncern stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polski Koncern's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polski Koncern returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polski Koncern has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Polski Koncern regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polski Koncern stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polski Koncern stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polski Koncern stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Polski Koncern Lagged Returns
When evaluating Polski Koncern's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polski Koncern stock have on its future price. Polski Koncern autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polski Koncern autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polski Koncern stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polski Koncern Naftowy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Polski Koncern
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Polski Koncern position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Polski Koncern will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Polski Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Polski Koncern could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Polski Koncern when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Polski Koncern - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Polski Koncern Naftowy to buy it.
The correlation of Polski Koncern is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Polski Koncern moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Polski Koncern Naftowy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Polski Koncern can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Polski Stock Analysis
When running Polski Koncern's price analysis, check to measure Polski Koncern's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Polski Koncern is operating at the current time. Most of Polski Koncern's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Polski Koncern's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Polski Koncern's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Polski Koncern to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.