Pt Pradiksi (Indonesia) Market Value
| PGUN Stock | IDR 424.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | PGUN |
Pt Pradiksi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Pt Pradiksi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Pt Pradiksi.
| 12/14/2022 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Pt Pradiksi on December 14, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Pt Pradiksi Gunatama or generate 0.0% return on investment in Pt Pradiksi over 720 days. Pt Pradiksi is related to or competes with Dharma Satya, Saratoga Investama, Surya Esa, Elang Mahkota, and Sawit Sumbermas. PT Pradiksi Gunatama TBK engages in the palm oil plantation activities in Indonesia More
Pt Pradiksi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Pt Pradiksi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Pt Pradiksi Gunatama upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.007 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.93) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.91 |
Pt Pradiksi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Pt Pradiksi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Pt Pradiksi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Pt Pradiksi historical prices to predict the future Pt Pradiksi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.115 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1421 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0051 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.64) |
Pt Pradiksi Gunatama Backtested Returns
Pt Pradiksi Gunatama retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0387, which implies the firm had a -0.0387% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. Pt Pradiksi exposes twenty-five different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Pt Pradiksi's market risk adjusted performance of (0.63), and Standard Deviation of 0.8763 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.19, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Pt Pradiksi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Pt Pradiksi is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Pt Pradiksi Gunatama has a negative expected return of -0.0212%. Please make sure to check Pt Pradiksi's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if Pt Pradiksi Gunatama performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.21 |
Weak predictability
Pt Pradiksi Gunatama has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Pt Pradiksi time series from 14th of December 2022 to 9th of December 2023 and 9th of December 2023 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Pt Pradiksi Gunatama price movement. The serial correlation of 0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Pt Pradiksi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1852.19 |
Pt Pradiksi Gunatama lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Pt Pradiksi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Pt Pradiksi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Pt Pradiksi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Pt Pradiksi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Pt Pradiksi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Pt Pradiksi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Pt Pradiksi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Pt Pradiksi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Pt Pradiksi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Pt Pradiksi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Pt Pradiksi stock have on its future price. Pt Pradiksi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Pt Pradiksi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Pt Pradiksi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Pt Pradiksi Gunatama.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Pt Pradiksi financial ratios help investors to determine whether PGUN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PGUN with respect to the benefits of owning Pt Pradiksi security.