Long Term Government Fund Market Value
| PFGCX Fund | USD 14.13 0.07 0.49% |
| Symbol | Long-term |
Long-term 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Long-term's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Long-term.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Long-term on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Long Term Government Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Long-term over 90 days. Long-term is related to or competes with Nationwide Government, Us Government, Great-west, Fidelity Series, Us Government, and Payden Us. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its assets in a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities that a... More
Long-term Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Long-term's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Long Term Government Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.08 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.04 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.52 |
Long-term Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Long-term's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Long-term's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Long-term historical prices to predict the future Long-term's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0465 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.61) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Long-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Long Term Government Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Long-term Mutual Fund to be very steady. Long Term Government has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0301, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0301 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Long-term, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Long-term's Mean Deviation of 0.6088, standard deviation of 0.7577, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05) to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0226%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0788, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Long-term's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Long-term is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.35 |
Poor reverse predictability
Long Term Government Fund has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Long-term time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Long Term Government price movement. The serial correlation of -0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Long-term price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Long Term Government lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Long-term mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Long-term's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Long-term returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Long-term has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Long-term regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Long-term mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Long-term mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Long-term mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Long-term Lagged Returns
When evaluating Long-term's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Long-term mutual fund have on its future price. Long-term autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Long-term autocorrelation shows the relationship between Long-term mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Long Term Government Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Long-term Mutual Fund
Long-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Long-term Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Long-term with respect to the benefits of owning Long-term security.
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