Papilon Savunma (Turkey) Market Value
| PAPIL Stock | TRY 13.11 0.34 2.53% |
| Symbol | Papilon |
Papilon Savunma 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Papilon Savunma's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Papilon Savunma.
| 01/05/2023 |
| 12/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Papilon Savunma on January 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Papilon Savunma Guvenlik or generate 0.0% return on investment in Papilon Savunma over 720 days. Papilon Savunma is related to or competes with SASA Polyester, Turkish Airlines, Koc Holding, Ford Otomotiv, ENKA Insaat, Turkiye Petrol, and Eregli Demir. More
Papilon Savunma Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Papilon Savunma's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Papilon Savunma Guvenlik upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0089 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.66 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.94 |
Papilon Savunma Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Papilon Savunma's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Papilon Savunma's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Papilon Savunma historical prices to predict the future Papilon Savunma's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0244 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0792 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.012 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.22) |
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik Backtested Returns
Papilon Savunma is somewhat reliable at the moment. Papilon Savunma Guvenlik maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0437, which implies the firm had a 0.0437% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Papilon Savunma Guvenlik, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Papilon Savunma's Coefficient Of Variation of 4842.16, risk adjusted performance of 0.0244, and Semi Deviation of 2.74 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Papilon Savunma has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of -0.31, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Papilon Savunma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Papilon Savunma is likely to outperform the market. Papilon Savunma Guvenlik right now holds a risk of 3.84%. Please check Papilon Savunma Guvenlik value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if Papilon Savunma Guvenlik will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Papilon Savunma time series from 5th of January 2023 to 31st of December 2023 and 31st of December 2023 to 25th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Papilon Savunma Guvenlik price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Papilon Savunma price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 25.83 |
Papilon Savunma Guvenlik lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Papilon Savunma stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Papilon Savunma's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Papilon Savunma returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Papilon Savunma has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Papilon Savunma regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Papilon Savunma stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Papilon Savunma stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Papilon Savunma stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Papilon Savunma Lagged Returns
When evaluating Papilon Savunma's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Papilon Savunma stock have on its future price. Papilon Savunma autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Papilon Savunma autocorrelation shows the relationship between Papilon Savunma stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Papilon Savunma Guvenlik.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Papilon Stock
Papilon Savunma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Papilon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Papilon with respect to the benefits of owning Papilon Savunma security.