Provident Agro (Indonesia) Market Value
| PALM Stock | IDR 404.00 20.00 5.21% |
| Symbol | Provident |
Provident Agro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Provident Agro's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Provident Agro.
| 12/18/2024 |
| 03/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Provident Agro on December 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Provident Agro Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Provident Agro over 90 days. Provident Agro is related to or competes with Dharma Satya, Salim Ivomas, Sawit Sumbermas, Austindo Nusantara, and Saratoga Investama. PT Provident Agro Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of palm oil plantations in Indonesia More
Provident Agro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Provident Agro's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Provident Agro Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0294 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.95 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.94) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.0 |
Provident Agro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Provident Agro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Provident Agro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Provident Agro historical prices to predict the future Provident Agro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0057 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0457 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3816 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.03) |
Provident Agro Tbk Backtested Returns
Provident Agro appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Provident Agro Tbk maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0597, which implies the firm had a 0.0597 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Provident Agro Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Provident Agro's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0057, coefficient of variation of (54,991), and Variance of 10.06 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Provident Agro holds a performance score of 4. The company holds a Beta of 0.56, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Provident Agro's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Provident Agro is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Provident Agro's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Provident Agro's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Provident Agro Tbk has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Provident Agro time series from 18th of December 2024 to 1st of February 2025 and 1st of February 2025 to 18th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Provident Agro Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Provident Agro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.71 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 712.99 |
Provident Agro Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Provident Agro stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Provident Agro's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Provident Agro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Provident Agro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Provident Agro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Provident Agro stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Provident Agro stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Provident Agro stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Provident Agro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Provident Agro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Provident Agro stock have on its future price. Provident Agro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Provident Agro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Provident Agro stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Provident Agro Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Provident Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Provident Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Provident with respect to the benefits of owning Provident Agro security.