Newmont (Germany) Market Value
| NMM Stock | 37.35 0.32 0.86% |
| Symbol | Newmont |
Newmont 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Newmont's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Newmont.
| 11/05/2024 |
| 01/04/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Newmont on November 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Newmont or generate 0.0% return on investment in Newmont over 60 days.
Newmont Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Newmont's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Newmont upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.45 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.71) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.38 |
Newmont Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Newmont's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Newmont's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Newmont historical prices to predict the future Newmont's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.39) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.44) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.93 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newmont's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Newmont Backtested Returns
Newmont has Sharpe Ratio of -0.14, which conveys that the firm had a -0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Newmont exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Newmont's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12), mean deviation of 1.65, and Standard Deviation of 2.57 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.2, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Newmont are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Newmont is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Newmont has a negative expected return of -0.37%. Please make sure to verify Newmont's value at risk, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and day typical price , to decide if Newmont performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.06 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Newmont has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Newmont time series from 5th of November 2024 to 5th of December 2024 and 5th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Newmont price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Newmont price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.23 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.74 |
Newmont lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Newmont stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Newmont's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Newmont returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Newmont has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Newmont regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Newmont stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Newmont stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Newmont stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Newmont Lagged Returns
When evaluating Newmont's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Newmont stock have on its future price. Newmont autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Newmont autocorrelation shows the relationship between Newmont stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Newmont.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Newmont Stock Analysis
When running Newmont's price analysis, check to measure Newmont's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Newmont is operating at the current time. Most of Newmont's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Newmont's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Newmont's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Newmont to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.