NATIONAL INVESTMENT (Malawi) Market Value
| NITL Stock | 440.00 30.07 7.34% |
| Symbol | NATIONAL |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NATIONAL INVESTMENT's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NATIONAL INVESTMENT.
| 09/05/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NATIONAL INVESTMENT on September 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST or generate 0.0% return on investment in NATIONAL INVESTMENT over 90 days.
NATIONAL INVESTMENT Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NATIONAL INVESTMENT's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.0676 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.2627 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.01) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.0024 |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NATIONAL INVESTMENT's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NATIONAL INVESTMENT's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NATIONAL INVESTMENT historical prices to predict the future NATIONAL INVESTMENT's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0914 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1041 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.31) |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST Backtested Returns
Currently, NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST is very steady. NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST has Sharpe Ratio of 0.12, which conveys that the company had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for NATIONAL INVESTMENT, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please verify NATIONAL INVESTMENT's coefficient of variation of 848.98, and Mean Deviation of 0.2191 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. NATIONAL INVESTMENT has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0736, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NATIONAL INVESTMENT are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NATIONAL INVESTMENT is likely to outperform the market. NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST currently secures a risk of 0.93%. Please verify NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NATIONAL INVESTMENT time series from 5th of September 2024 to 20th of October 2024 and 20th of October 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current NATIONAL INVESTMENT price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 76.83 |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NATIONAL INVESTMENT stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NATIONAL INVESTMENT's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NATIONAL INVESTMENT returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NATIONAL INVESTMENT has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NATIONAL INVESTMENT stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NATIONAL INVESTMENT stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NATIONAL INVESTMENT stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT Lagged Returns
When evaluating NATIONAL INVESTMENT's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NATIONAL INVESTMENT stock have on its future price. NATIONAL INVESTMENT autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NATIONAL INVESTMENT autocorrelation shows the relationship between NATIONAL INVESTMENT stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for NATIONAL Stock Analysis
When running NATIONAL INVESTMENT's price analysis, check to measure NATIONAL INVESTMENT's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NATIONAL INVESTMENT is operating at the current time. Most of NATIONAL INVESTMENT's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NATIONAL INVESTMENT's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NATIONAL INVESTMENT's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NATIONAL INVESTMENT to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.