Medibank Private (Australia) Market Value

MPL Stock   3.82  0.03  0.79%   
Medibank Private's market value is the price at which a share of Medibank Private trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Medibank Private investors about its performance. Medibank Private is selling for under 3.82 as of the 4th of January 2025; that is 0.79 percent increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's last reported lowest price was 3.79.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Medibank Private and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Medibank Private over a given investment horizon. Check out Medibank Private Correlation, Medibank Private Volatility and Medibank Private Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Medibank Private.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Medibank Private's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Medibank Private is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Medibank Private's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Medibank Private 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Medibank Private's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Medibank Private.
0.00
11/05/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 2 days
01/04/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Medibank Private on November 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Medibank Private or generate 0.0% return on investment in Medibank Private over 60 days. Medibank Private is related to or competes with Westpac Banking, IShares Global, Adriatic Metals, Australian Agricultural, and VanEck FTSE. Medibank Private is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More

Medibank Private Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Medibank Private's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Medibank Private upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Medibank Private Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Medibank Private's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Medibank Private's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Medibank Private historical prices to predict the future Medibank Private's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.913.824.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.853.764.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
2.973.884.80
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.040.050.06
Details

Medibank Private Backtested Returns

Currently, Medibank Private is not too volatile. Medibank Private has Sharpe Ratio of 0.085, which conveys that the firm had a 0.085% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Medibank Private, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Medibank Private's Downside Deviation of 0.923, mean deviation of 0.738, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0707 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0775%. Medibank Private has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0512, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Medibank Private's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Medibank Private is expected to be smaller as well. Medibank Private right now secures a risk of 0.91%. Please verify Medibank Private semi deviation, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and information ratio , to decide if Medibank Private will be following its current price movements.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.34  

Poor reverse predictability

Medibank Private has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Medibank Private time series from 5th of November 2024 to 5th of December 2024 and 5th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Medibank Private price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Medibank Private price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.34
Spearman Rank Test-0.05
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.0
Medibank ReturnsMedibank Lagged ReturnsDiversified AwayMedibank ReturnsMedibank Lagged ReturnsDiversified Away100%

Medibank Private lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Medibank Private stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Medibank Private's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Medibank Private returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Medibank Private has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Dec 05Dec 09Dec 13Dec 17Dec 21Dec 25Dec 29Jan-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6% 101001K
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Volume Lagged Volume Prices Lagged Prices
       Timeline  

Medibank Private regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Medibank Private stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Medibank Private stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Medibank Private stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Dec 05Dec 09Dec 13Dec 17Dec 21Dec 25Dec 29Jan3.683.703.723.743.763.783.80
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Regression Prices Lagged Regression Prices
       Timeline  

Medibank Private Lagged Returns

When evaluating Medibank Private's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Medibank Private stock have on its future price. Medibank Private autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Medibank Private autocorrelation shows the relationship between Medibank Private stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Medibank Private.
   Regressed Prices   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Nov 11Nov 18Nov 25DecDec 09Dec 16Dec 23Dec 303.603.653.703.753.803.85
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Lagged Returns Returns
       Timeline  

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Medibank Stock Analysis

When running Medibank Private's price analysis, check to measure Medibank Private's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medibank Private is operating at the current time. Most of Medibank Private's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medibank Private's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medibank Private's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medibank Private to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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