MercadoLibre (Brazil) Market Value
| MELI34 Stock | BRL 90.11 1.12 1.23% |
| Symbol | MercadoLibre |
MercadoLibre 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MercadoLibre's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MercadoLibre.
| 01/13/2024 |
| 01/07/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MercadoLibre on January 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MercadoLibre or generate 0.0% return on investment in MercadoLibre over 360 days. MercadoLibre is related to or competes with TAL Education, MAHLE Metal, Charter Communications, and Telecomunicaes Brasileiras. MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America More
MercadoLibre Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MercadoLibre's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MercadoLibre upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.18 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.4 |
MercadoLibre Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MercadoLibre's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MercadoLibre's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MercadoLibre historical prices to predict the future MercadoLibre's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0096 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0) |
MercadoLibre Backtested Returns
MercadoLibre has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0198, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0198% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. MercadoLibre exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify MercadoLibre's Mean Deviation of 1.93, risk adjusted performance of 0.0096, and Downside Deviation of 3.08 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.45, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, MercadoLibre's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding MercadoLibre is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, MercadoLibre has a negative expected return of -0.0551%. Please make sure to verify MercadoLibre's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if MercadoLibre performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
MercadoLibre has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MercadoLibre time series from 13th of January 2024 to 11th of July 2024 and 11th of July 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MercadoLibre price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current MercadoLibre price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 44.65 |
MercadoLibre lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MercadoLibre stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MercadoLibre's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MercadoLibre returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MercadoLibre has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
MercadoLibre regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MercadoLibre stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MercadoLibre stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MercadoLibre stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MercadoLibre Lagged Returns
When evaluating MercadoLibre's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MercadoLibre stock have on its future price. MercadoLibre autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MercadoLibre autocorrelation shows the relationship between MercadoLibre stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MercadoLibre.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in MercadoLibre Stock
When determining whether MercadoLibre offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MercadoLibre's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mercadolibre Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mercadolibre Stock:Check out MercadoLibre Correlation, MercadoLibre Volatility and MercadoLibre Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on MercadoLibre. For information on how to trade MercadoLibre Stock refer to our How to Trade MercadoLibre Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
MercadoLibre technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.