Ultimus Managers Trust Etf Market Value
| MDST Etf | 27.39 0.66 2.47% |
| Symbol | Ultimus |
The market value of Ultimus Managers Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ultimus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ultimus Managers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ultimus Managers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ultimus Managers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ultimus Managers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ultimus Managers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ultimus Managers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ultimus Managers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Ultimus Managers 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultimus Managers' etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultimus Managers.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultimus Managers on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultimus Managers Trust or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultimus Managers over 90 days. Ultimus Managers is related to or competes with Direxion Daily, EA Series, Global X, ETRACS Quarterly, Global X, and UBS AG. Mindesta Inc. develops fast dissolving drug delivery systems for the pharmaceutical industry in Canada. More
Ultimus Managers Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultimus Managers' etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultimus Managers Trust upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1089 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.88 |
Ultimus Managers Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultimus Managers' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultimus Managers' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultimus Managers historical prices to predict the future Ultimus Managers' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0245 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0731 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1679 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1009 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0404 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultimus Managers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultimus Managers Trust Backtested Returns
Currently, Ultimus Managers Trust is very steady. Ultimus Managers Trust owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0608, which indicates the etf had a 0.0608 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Ultimus Managers Trust, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the etf. Please validate Ultimus Managers' Coefficient Of Variation of 3974.68, semi deviation of 1.18, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0245 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0716%. The entity has a beta of 0.49, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ultimus Managers' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ultimus Managers is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.49 |
Modest reverse predictability
Ultimus Managers Trust has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultimus Managers time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultimus Managers Trust price movement. The serial correlation of -0.49 indicates that about 49.0% of current Ultimus Managers price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.49 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.17 |
Ultimus Managers Trust lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultimus Managers etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultimus Managers' etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultimus Managers returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultimus Managers has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultimus Managers regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultimus Managers etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultimus Managers etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultimus Managers etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultimus Managers Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultimus Managers' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultimus Managers etf have on its future price. Ultimus Managers autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultimus Managers autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultimus Managers etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultimus Managers Trust.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Check out Ultimus Managers Correlation, Ultimus Managers Volatility and Ultimus Managers Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ultimus Managers. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Ultimus Managers technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.