First Media (Indonesia) Market Value
| KBLV Stock | IDR 98.00 2.00 2.08% |
| Symbol | First |
First Media 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Media's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Media.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Media on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Media Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Media over 90 days. First Media is related to or competes with Equity Development, Fast Food, Indofood Cbp, Eastparc Hotel, Enseval Putra, and Protech Mitra. More
First Media Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Media's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Media Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.092 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.35 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.53 |
First Media Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Media's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Media's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Media historical prices to predict the future First Media's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0382 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0409 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2882 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0684 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.35) |
First Media Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, First Stock is very steady. First Media Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0378, which denotes the company had a 0.0378 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First Media Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Media's Mean Deviation of 1.13, coefficient of variation of 2643.3, and Downside Deviation of 2.46 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0692%. First Media has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.17, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Media are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Media is likely to outperform the market. First Media Tbk right now shows a risk of 1.83%. Please confirm First Media Tbk total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if First Media Tbk will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.20 |
Weak predictability
First Media Tbk has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Media time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Media Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current First Media price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.74 |
First Media Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Media stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Media's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Media returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Media has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Media regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Media stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Media stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Media stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Media Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Media's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Media stock have on its future price. First Media autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Media autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Media stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Media Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectOther Information on Investing in First Stock
First Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Media security.