AeroVironment (Germany) Market Value
| JPX Stock | EUR 159.30 5.50 3.34% |
| Symbol | AeroVironment |
AeroVironment 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AeroVironment's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AeroVironment.
| 12/21/2024 |
| 01/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AeroVironment on December 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AeroVironment or generate 0.0% return on investment in AeroVironment over 30 days. AeroVironment is related to or competes with Adtalem Global, Ryanair Holdings, TAL Education, Perdoceo Education, and WIZZ AIR. AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports, and operates a portfolio of products and services for governm... More
AeroVironment Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AeroVironment's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AeroVironment upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.51 |
AeroVironment Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AeroVironment's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AeroVironment's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AeroVironment historical prices to predict the future AeroVironment's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.23) |
AeroVironment Backtested Returns
AeroVironment secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0774, which signifies that the company had a -0.0774 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. AeroVironment exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AeroVironment's Standard Deviation of 3.91, mean deviation of 2.59, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.11, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, AeroVironment's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding AeroVironment is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, AeroVironment has a negative expected return of -0.31%. Please make sure to confirm AeroVironment's treynor ratio, daily balance of power, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if AeroVironment performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.68 |
Good predictability
AeroVironment has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AeroVironment time series from 21st of December 2024 to 5th of January 2025 and 5th of January 2025 to 20th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AeroVironment price movement. The serial correlation of 0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current AeroVironment price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.22 |
AeroVironment lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AeroVironment stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AeroVironment's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AeroVironment returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AeroVironment has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AeroVironment regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AeroVironment stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AeroVironment stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AeroVironment stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AeroVironment Lagged Returns
When evaluating AeroVironment's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AeroVironment stock have on its future price. AeroVironment autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AeroVironment autocorrelation shows the relationship between AeroVironment stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AeroVironment.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AeroVironment Stock
When determining whether AeroVironment is a strong investment it is important to analyze AeroVironment's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AeroVironment's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AeroVironment Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AeroVironment Correlation, AeroVironment Volatility and AeroVironment Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on AeroVironment. For more detail on how to invest in AeroVironment Stock please use our How to Invest in AeroVironment guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
AeroVironment technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.