TAL Education (Germany) Market Value
| IZZ Stock | EUR 9.25 0.10 1.09% |
| Symbol | TAL |
TAL Education 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TAL Education's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TAL Education.
| 11/28/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TAL Education on November 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TAL Education Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in TAL Education over 390 days. TAL Education is related to or competes with IDP EDUCATION, Grand Canyon, Graham Holdings, Strategic Education, Chegg, and Laureate Education. TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the Peoples Republic of China More
TAL Education Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TAL Education's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TAL Education Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1068 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 31.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 11.96 |
TAL Education Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TAL Education's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TAL Education's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TAL Education historical prices to predict the future TAL Education's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0977 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.615 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4784 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1198 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5562 |
TAL Education Group Backtested Returns
TAL Education appears to be moderately volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. TAL Education Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0986, which indicates the company had a 0.0986% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By examining TAL Education's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.55% is justified by implied risk. Please review TAL Education's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0977, market risk adjusted performance of 0.5662, and Downside Deviation of 5.16 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, TAL Education holds a performance score of 7. The firm has a beta of 1.15, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, TAL Education will likely underperform. Please check TAL Education's maximum drawdown, semi variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether TAL Education's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.47 |
Modest reverse predictability
TAL Education Group has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TAL Education time series from 28th of November 2023 to 10th of June 2024 and 10th of June 2024 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TAL Education Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current TAL Education price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.47 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.38 |
TAL Education Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TAL Education stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TAL Education's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TAL Education returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TAL Education has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TAL Education regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TAL Education stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TAL Education stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TAL Education stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TAL Education Lagged Returns
When evaluating TAL Education's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TAL Education stock have on its future price. TAL Education autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TAL Education autocorrelation shows the relationship between TAL Education stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TAL Education Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in TAL Stock
When determining whether TAL Education Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze TAL Education's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TAL Education's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TAL Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out TAL Education Correlation, TAL Education Volatility and TAL Education Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on TAL Education. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
TAL Education technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.