Heidelberg Pharma (Germany) Market Value
| HPHA Stock | EUR 2.39 0.03 1.27% |
| Symbol | Heidelberg |
Heidelberg Pharma 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Heidelberg Pharma's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Heidelberg Pharma.
| 11/06/2024 |
| 01/05/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Heidelberg Pharma on November 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Heidelberg Pharma AG or generate 0.0% return on investment in Heidelberg Pharma over 60 days. Heidelberg Pharma is related to or competes with Take Two, Siamgas, Guidewire Software, Easy Software, and CyberArk Software. More
Heidelberg Pharma Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Heidelberg Pharma's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Heidelberg Pharma AG upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0234 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.16 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.58) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.0 |
Heidelberg Pharma Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Heidelberg Pharma's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Heidelberg Pharma's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Heidelberg Pharma historical prices to predict the future Heidelberg Pharma's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0325 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0757 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0357 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0216 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3123 |
Heidelberg Pharma Backtested Returns
Currently, Heidelberg Pharma AG is out of control. Heidelberg Pharma holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0313, which attests that the entity had a 0.0313% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Heidelberg Pharma, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Heidelberg Pharma's Downside Deviation of 3.09, risk adjusted performance of 0.0325, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.3223 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0889%. Heidelberg Pharma has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.25, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Heidelberg Pharma's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Heidelberg Pharma is expected to be smaller as well. Heidelberg Pharma right now retains a risk of 2.84%. Please check out Heidelberg Pharma standard deviation, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Heidelberg Pharma will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.60 |
Good predictability
Heidelberg Pharma AG has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Heidelberg Pharma time series from 6th of November 2024 to 6th of December 2024 and 6th of December 2024 to 5th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Heidelberg Pharma price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Heidelberg Pharma price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Heidelberg Pharma lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Heidelberg Pharma stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Heidelberg Pharma's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Heidelberg Pharma returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Heidelberg Pharma has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Heidelberg Pharma regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Heidelberg Pharma stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Heidelberg Pharma stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Heidelberg Pharma stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Heidelberg Pharma Lagged Returns
When evaluating Heidelberg Pharma's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Heidelberg Pharma stock have on its future price. Heidelberg Pharma autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Heidelberg Pharma autocorrelation shows the relationship between Heidelberg Pharma stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Heidelberg Pharma AG.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Heidelberg Stock Analysis
When running Heidelberg Pharma's price analysis, check to measure Heidelberg Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heidelberg Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of Heidelberg Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heidelberg Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heidelberg Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heidelberg Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.