HelloFresh's market value is the price at which a share of HelloFresh trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of HelloFresh SE investors about its performance. HelloFresh is trading at 11.89 as of the 1st of January 2025. This is a 2.14 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 11.89. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of HelloFresh SE and determine expected loss or profit from investing in HelloFresh over a given investment horizon. Check out HelloFresh Correlation, HelloFresh Volatility and HelloFresh Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on HelloFresh.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HelloFresh's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HelloFresh is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HelloFresh's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
HelloFresh 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to HelloFresh's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of HelloFresh.
0.00
06/11/2023
No Change 0.00
0.0
In 1 year 6 months and 25 days
01/01/2025
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If you would invest 0.00 in HelloFresh on June 11, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding HelloFresh SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in HelloFresh over 570 days. HelloFresh is related to or competes with Biglari Holdings, Potbelly, Restaurant Brands, Red Robin, Alsea SAB, Dine Brands, and Dennys Corp. HelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes More
HelloFresh Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure HelloFresh's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess HelloFresh SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for HelloFresh's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as HelloFresh's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use HelloFresh historical prices to predict the future HelloFresh's volatility.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as HelloFresh. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against HelloFresh's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, HelloFresh's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in HelloFresh SE.
HelloFresh SE Backtested Returns
HelloFresh appears to be moderately volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. HelloFresh SE holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.064, which attests that the entity had a 0.064% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for HelloFresh SE, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize HelloFresh's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.51), risk adjusted performance of 0.0746, and Downside Deviation of 7.54 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, HelloFresh holds a performance score of 5. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -1.09, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning HelloFresh are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, HelloFresh is expected to outperform it slightly. Please check HelloFresh's total risk alpha, downside variance, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether HelloFresh's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation
-0.9
Excellent reverse predictability
HelloFresh SE has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between HelloFresh time series from 11th of June 2023 to 22nd of March 2024 and 22nd of March 2024 to 1st of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of HelloFresh SE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.9 indicates that approximately 90.0% of current HelloFresh price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.9
Spearman Rank Test
-0.48
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
5.22
HelloFresh SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is HelloFresh pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting HelloFresh's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of HelloFresh returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that HelloFresh has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
HelloFresh regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If HelloFresh pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if HelloFresh pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in HelloFresh pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
HelloFresh Lagged Returns
When evaluating HelloFresh's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of HelloFresh pink sheet have on its future price. HelloFresh autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, HelloFresh autocorrelation shows the relationship between HelloFresh pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in HelloFresh SE.
Other Information on Investing in HelloFresh Pink Sheet
HelloFresh financial ratios help investors to determine whether HelloFresh Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HelloFresh with respect to the benefits of owning HelloFresh security.