Holmen AB (Germany) Market Value

HL9C Stock  EUR 37.06  0.92  2.42%   
Holmen AB's market value is the price at which a share of Holmen AB trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Holmen AB investors about its performance. Holmen AB is trading at 37.06 as of the 4th of March 2025. This is a 2.42% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 37.06.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Holmen AB and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Holmen AB over a given investment horizon. Check out Holmen AB Correlation, Holmen AB Volatility and Holmen AB Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Holmen AB.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Holmen AB's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Holmen AB is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Holmen AB's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Holmen AB 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Holmen AB's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Holmen AB.
0.00
02/02/2025
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
03/04/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Holmen AB on February 2, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Holmen AB or generate 0.0% return on investment in Holmen AB over 30 days. Holmen AB is related to or competes with Hastings Technology, Sunny Optical, BJs Wholesale, Caseys General, Burlington Stores, Kingdee International, and Computer. Holmen Aktiebolag manufactures and sells papers, paperboards, and wood products worldwide More

Holmen AB Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Holmen AB's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Holmen AB upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Holmen AB Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Holmen AB's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Holmen AB's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Holmen AB historical prices to predict the future Holmen AB's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Holmen AB's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.8637.0638.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.6036.8038.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
35.7136.9138.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
34.5836.4438.30
Details

Holmen AB Backtested Returns

At this point, Holmen AB is very steady. Holmen AB holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0458, which attests that the entity had a 0.0458 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Holmen AB, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Holmen AB's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0586, market risk adjusted performance of 7.35, and Downside Deviation of 1.25 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0582%. Holmen AB has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0105, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Holmen AB's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Holmen AB is expected to be smaller as well. Holmen AB right now retains a risk of 1.27%. Please check out Holmen AB information ratio, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Holmen AB will be following its current trending patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.6  

Good reverse predictability

Holmen AB has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Holmen AB time series from 2nd of February 2025 to 17th of February 2025 and 17th of February 2025 to 4th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Holmen AB price movement. The serial correlation of -0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Holmen AB price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.6
Spearman Rank Test-0.57
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.18

Holmen AB lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Holmen AB stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Holmen AB's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Holmen AB returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Holmen AB has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Holmen AB regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Holmen AB stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Holmen AB stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Holmen AB stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Holmen AB Lagged Returns

When evaluating Holmen AB's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Holmen AB stock have on its future price. Holmen AB autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Holmen AB autocorrelation shows the relationship between Holmen AB stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Holmen AB.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Holmen Stock

Holmen AB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Holmen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Holmen with respect to the benefits of owning Holmen AB security.