Gulf Energy (Thailand) Market Value
| GULF Stock | THB 60.50 1.75 2.81% |
| Symbol | Gulf |
Gulf Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gulf Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gulf Energy.
| 05/06/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gulf Energy on May 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gulf Energy Development or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gulf Energy over 210 days. Gulf Energy is related to or competes with Energy Absolute, BGrimm Power, Global Power, CP ALL, and PTT Public. Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity, steam, and chilled water to public and pr... More
Gulf Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gulf Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gulf Energy Development upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0686 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.64) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.21 |
Gulf Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gulf Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gulf Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gulf Energy historical prices to predict the future Gulf Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1131 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.257 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0754 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 11.65 |
Gulf Energy Development Backtested Returns
Gulf Energy appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Gulf Energy Development holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.15, which attests that the entity had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Gulf Energy Development, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Gulf Energy's Downside Deviation of 1.76, risk adjusted performance of 0.1131, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 11.66 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Gulf Energy holds a performance score of 11. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0223, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gulf Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gulf Energy is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Gulf Energy's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Gulf Energy's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.48 |
Average predictability
Gulf Energy Development has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gulf Energy time series from 6th of May 2024 to 19th of August 2024 and 19th of August 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gulf Energy Development price movement. The serial correlation of 0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Gulf Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 35.11 |
Gulf Energy Development lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gulf Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gulf Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gulf Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gulf Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gulf Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gulf Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gulf Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gulf Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gulf Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gulf Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gulf Energy stock have on its future price. Gulf Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gulf Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gulf Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gulf Energy Development.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Gulf Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gulf Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gulf with respect to the benefits of owning Gulf Energy security.