Gulf Keystone Petroleum Stock Market Value
| GUKYF Stock | USD 1.85 0.02 1.09% |
| Symbol | Gulf |
Gulf Keystone 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gulf Keystone's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gulf Keystone.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gulf Keystone on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gulf Keystone Petroleum or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gulf Keystone over 30 days. Gulf Keystone is related to or competes with San Leon, Enwell Energy, Dno ASA, Questerre Energy, PetroShale, Saturn Oil, and PetroTal Corp. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the ... More
Gulf Keystone Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gulf Keystone's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gulf Keystone Petroleum upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.88 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0395 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 27.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.70) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.04 |
Gulf Keystone Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gulf Keystone's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gulf Keystone's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gulf Keystone historical prices to predict the future Gulf Keystone's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0629 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2863 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.42) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0348 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.47 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gulf Keystone's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Backtested Returns
Gulf Keystone appears to be dangerous, given 3 months investment horizon. Gulf Keystone Petroleum holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0731, which attests that the entity had a 0.0731% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Gulf Keystone's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0629, downside deviation of 4.88, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 3.48 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Gulf Keystone holds a performance score of 5. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0857, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gulf Keystone's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gulf Keystone is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Gulf Keystone's downside variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Gulf Keystone's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gulf Keystone time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gulf Keystone Petroleum price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current Gulf Keystone price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Gulf Keystone Petroleum lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gulf Keystone pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gulf Keystone's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gulf Keystone returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gulf Keystone has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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Gulf Keystone regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gulf Keystone pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gulf Keystone pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gulf Keystone pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gulf Keystone Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gulf Keystone's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gulf Keystone pink sheet have on its future price. Gulf Keystone autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gulf Keystone autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gulf Keystone pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Gulf Pink Sheet
Gulf Keystone financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gulf Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gulf with respect to the benefits of owning Gulf Keystone security.