Guararapes Confeces (Brazil) Market Value
| GUAR3 Stock | BRL 7.40 0.47 6.78% |
| Symbol | Guararapes |
Guararapes Confeces 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guararapes Confeces' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guararapes Confeces.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guararapes Confeces on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guararapes Confeces SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guararapes Confeces over 90 days. Guararapes Confeces is related to or competes with Lojas Renner, Marisa Lojas, Vulcabras Azaleia, and Alpargatas. Guararapes Confeces S.A. engages in the manufacture, distribution, and retail of fashion clothes in Brazil More
Guararapes Confeces Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guararapes Confeces' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guararapes Confeces SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.26 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0419 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.13 |
Guararapes Confeces Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guararapes Confeces' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guararapes Confeces' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guararapes Confeces historical prices to predict the future Guararapes Confeces' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0221 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0729 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.5415 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0383 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3124 |
Guararapes Confeces Backtested Returns
Guararapes Confeces appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Guararapes Confeces holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0652, which attests that the entity had a 0.0652 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Guararapes Confeces, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Guararapes Confeces' market risk adjusted performance of 0.3224, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0221 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Guararapes Confeces holds a performance score of 5. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.17, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Guararapes Confeces' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guararapes Confeces is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Guararapes Confeces' market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Guararapes Confeces' current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.06 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Guararapes Confeces SA has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guararapes Confeces time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guararapes Confeces price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Guararapes Confeces price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Guararapes Confeces lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guararapes Confeces stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guararapes Confeces' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guararapes Confeces returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guararapes Confeces has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guararapes Confeces regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guararapes Confeces stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guararapes Confeces stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guararapes Confeces stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guararapes Confeces Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guararapes Confeces' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guararapes Confeces stock have on its future price. Guararapes Confeces autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guararapes Confeces autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guararapes Confeces stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guararapes Confeces SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Guararapes Stock Analysis
When running Guararapes Confeces' price analysis, check to measure Guararapes Confeces' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guararapes Confeces is operating at the current time. Most of Guararapes Confeces' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guararapes Confeces' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guararapes Confeces' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guararapes Confeces to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.