GUARANTY TRUST's market value is the price at which a share of GUARANTY TRUST trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING investors about its performance. GUARANTY TRUST is selling at 57.95 as of the 27th of December 2024; that is 1.36 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 58.75. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING and determine expected loss or profit from investing in GUARANTY TRUST over a given investment horizon. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
Symbol
GUARANTY
GUARANTY TRUST 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to GUARANTY TRUST's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of GUARANTY TRUST.
0.00
11/27/2024
No Change 0.00
0.0
In 31 days
12/27/2024
0.00
If you would invest 0.00 in GUARANTY TRUST on November 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING or generate 0.0% return on investment in GUARANTY TRUST over 30 days.
GUARANTY TRUST Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure GUARANTY TRUST's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for GUARANTY TRUST's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as GUARANTY TRUST's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use GUARANTY TRUST historical prices to predict the future GUARANTY TRUST's volatility.
GUARANTY TRUST appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.18, which attests that the entity had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for GUARANTY TRUST, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize GUARANTY TRUST's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (2.46), semi deviation of 1.22, and Coefficient Of Variation of 525.43 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, GUARANTY TRUST holds a performance score of 14. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.13, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning GUARANTY TRUST are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, GUARANTY TRUST is likely to outperform the market. Please check GUARANTY TRUST's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether GUARANTY TRUST's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation
0.56
Modest predictability
GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between GUARANTY TRUST time series from 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024 and 12th of December 2024 to 27th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current GUARANTY TRUST price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.56
Spearman Rank Test
0.5
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
6.4
GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is GUARANTY TRUST stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting GUARANTY TRUST's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of GUARANTY TRUST returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that GUARANTY TRUST has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
GUARANTY TRUST regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If GUARANTY TRUST stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if GUARANTY TRUST stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in GUARANTY TRUST stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
GUARANTY TRUST Lagged Returns
When evaluating GUARANTY TRUST's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of GUARANTY TRUST stock have on its future price. GUARANTY TRUST autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, GUARANTY TRUST autocorrelation shows the relationship between GUARANTY TRUST stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.