Garda Tujuh (Indonesia) Market Value
| GTBO Stock | IDR 238.00 6.00 2.46% |
| Symbol | Garda |
Garda Tujuh 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Garda Tujuh's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Garda Tujuh.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Garda Tujuh on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Garda Tujuh Buana or generate 0.0% return on investment in Garda Tujuh over 30 days. Garda Tujuh is related to or competes with Weha Transportasi, Mitra Pinasthika, Jakarta Int, Asuransi Harta, Indosterling Technomedia, Indosat Tbk, and Bank Negara. PT Garda Tujuh Buana Tbk engages in mining, producing, and selling thermal coal in the north middle part of Bunyu Island... More
Garda Tujuh Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Garda Tujuh's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Garda Tujuh Buana upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.25) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.33 |
Garda Tujuh Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Garda Tujuh's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Garda Tujuh's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Garda Tujuh historical prices to predict the future Garda Tujuh's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.58) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.21 |
Garda Tujuh Buana Backtested Returns
Garda Tujuh Buana holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.16, which attests that the entity had a -0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Garda Tujuh Buana exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Garda Tujuh's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12), standard deviation of 1.69, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.22 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.24, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Garda Tujuh are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Garda Tujuh is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Garda Tujuh Buana has a negative expected return of -0.26%. Please make sure to check out Garda Tujuh's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if Garda Tujuh Buana performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.36 |
Below average predictability
Garda Tujuh Buana has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Garda Tujuh time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Garda Tujuh Buana price movement. The serial correlation of 0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Garda Tujuh price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.64 |
Garda Tujuh Buana lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Garda Tujuh stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Garda Tujuh's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Garda Tujuh returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Garda Tujuh has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Garda Tujuh regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Garda Tujuh stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Garda Tujuh stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Garda Tujuh stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Garda Tujuh Lagged Returns
When evaluating Garda Tujuh's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Garda Tujuh stock have on its future price. Garda Tujuh autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Garda Tujuh autocorrelation shows the relationship between Garda Tujuh stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Garda Tujuh Buana.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Garda Tujuh financial ratios help investors to determine whether Garda Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Garda with respect to the benefits of owning Garda Tujuh security.