Golden Tobacco (India) Market Value
| GOLDENTOBC | 40.76 0.74 1.85% |
| Symbol | Golden |
Golden Tobacco 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Golden Tobacco's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Golden Tobacco.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Golden Tobacco on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Golden Tobacco Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Golden Tobacco over 30 days. Golden Tobacco is related to or competes with State Bank, Life Insurance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries. Golden Tobacco is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Golden Tobacco Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Golden Tobacco's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Golden Tobacco Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.68 |
Golden Tobacco Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Golden Tobacco's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Golden Tobacco's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Golden Tobacco historical prices to predict the future Golden Tobacco's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0108 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0045 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Tobacco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golden Tobacco Backtested Returns
Currently, Golden Tobacco Limited is very steady. Golden Tobacco holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0043, which attests that the entity had a 0.0043% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Golden Tobacco, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Golden Tobacco's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0108, downside deviation of 2.14, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0145 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0099%. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.54, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Golden Tobacco's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Golden Tobacco is expected to be smaller as well. Golden Tobacco right now retains a risk of 2.29%. Please check out Golden Tobacco jensen alpha, potential upside, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and expected short fall , to decide if Golden Tobacco will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.19 |
Very weak predictability
Golden Tobacco Limited has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Golden Tobacco time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Golden Tobacco price movement. The serial correlation of 0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Golden Tobacco price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.7 |
Golden Tobacco lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Golden Tobacco stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Golden Tobacco's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Golden Tobacco returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Golden Tobacco has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Golden Tobacco regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Golden Tobacco stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Golden Tobacco stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Golden Tobacco stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Golden Tobacco Lagged Returns
When evaluating Golden Tobacco's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Golden Tobacco stock have on its future price. Golden Tobacco autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Golden Tobacco autocorrelation shows the relationship between Golden Tobacco stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Golden Tobacco Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Golden Stock Analysis
When running Golden Tobacco's price analysis, check to measure Golden Tobacco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Tobacco is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Tobacco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Tobacco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Tobacco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Tobacco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.