Metalurgica Gerdau (Brazil) Market Value
| GOAU3 Stock | BRL 11.38 0.15 1.34% |
| Symbol | Metalurgica |
Metalurgica Gerdau 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Metalurgica Gerdau's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Metalurgica Gerdau.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Metalurgica Gerdau on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Metalurgica Gerdau SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Metalurgica Gerdau over 720 days. Metalurgica Gerdau is related to or competes with Gerdau SA, Metalurgica Gerdau, Usinas Siderrgicas, Bradespar, and Companhia Paranaense. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of long and flat steel bars More
Metalurgica Gerdau Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Metalurgica Gerdau's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Metalurgica Gerdau SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0022 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.01 |
Metalurgica Gerdau Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Metalurgica Gerdau's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Metalurgica Gerdau's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Metalurgica Gerdau historical prices to predict the future Metalurgica Gerdau's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0703 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1561 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0027 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.67) |
Metalurgica Gerdau Backtested Returns
Currently, Metalurgica Gerdau SA is not too volatile. Metalurgica Gerdau has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0892, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0892% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Metalurgica Gerdau, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Metalurgica Gerdau's Mean Deviation of 1.09, downside deviation of 1.32, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0703 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. Metalurgica Gerdau has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.2, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Metalurgica Gerdau are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Metalurgica Gerdau is likely to outperform the market. Metalurgica Gerdau right now secures a risk of 1.67%. Please verify Metalurgica Gerdau SA total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Metalurgica Gerdau SA will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.02 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Metalurgica Gerdau SA has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Metalurgica Gerdau time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Metalurgica Gerdau price movement. The serial correlation of -0.02 indicates that only 2.0% of current Metalurgica Gerdau price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.02 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.04 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Metalurgica Gerdau lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Metalurgica Gerdau stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Metalurgica Gerdau's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Metalurgica Gerdau returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Metalurgica Gerdau has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Metalurgica Gerdau regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Metalurgica Gerdau stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Metalurgica Gerdau stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Metalurgica Gerdau stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Metalurgica Gerdau Lagged Returns
When evaluating Metalurgica Gerdau's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Metalurgica Gerdau stock have on its future price. Metalurgica Gerdau autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Metalurgica Gerdau autocorrelation shows the relationship between Metalurgica Gerdau stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Metalurgica Gerdau SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Metalurgica Stock Analysis
When running Metalurgica Gerdau's price analysis, check to measure Metalurgica Gerdau's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Metalurgica Gerdau is operating at the current time. Most of Metalurgica Gerdau's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Metalurgica Gerdau's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Metalurgica Gerdau's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Metalurgica Gerdau to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.