Gurtin California Muni Fund Market Value
| GCMVX Fund | USD 9.99 0.01 0.10% |
| Symbol | Gurtin |
Gurtin California 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gurtin California's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gurtin California.
| 01/18/2023 |
| 01/07/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gurtin California on January 18, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gurtin California Muni or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gurtin California over 720 days. Gurtin California is related to or competes with Gurtin California, Gurtin National, Fidelity 500, T Rowe, Polen Us, and Vanguard Growth. The fund invests under normal circumstances at least 80 percent of its assets in debt securities whose interest is, in t... More
Gurtin California Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gurtin California's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gurtin California Muni upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.23) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.902 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.201 |
Gurtin California Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gurtin California's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gurtin California's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gurtin California historical prices to predict the future Gurtin California's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.10) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gurtin California's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gurtin California Muni Backtested Returns
Gurtin California Muni holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0456, which attests that the entity had a -0.0456% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gurtin California Muni exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gurtin California's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.09), risk adjusted performance of (0.12), and Standard Deviation of 0.1752 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0255, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gurtin California's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gurtin California is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Gurtin California Muni has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gurtin California time series from 18th of January 2023 to 13th of January 2024 and 13th of January 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gurtin California Muni price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Gurtin California price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Gurtin California Muni lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gurtin California mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gurtin California's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gurtin California returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gurtin California has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gurtin California regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gurtin California mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gurtin California mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gurtin California mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gurtin California Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gurtin California's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gurtin California mutual fund have on its future price. Gurtin California autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gurtin California autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gurtin California mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gurtin California Muni.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Gurtin Mutual Fund
Gurtin California financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gurtin Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gurtin with respect to the benefits of owning Gurtin California security.
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