GREEN PLAINS's market value is the price at which a share of GREEN PLAINS trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of GREEN PLAINS RENEW investors about its performance. GREEN PLAINS is trading at 9.52 as of the 7th of January 2025, a 2.59% up since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 9.52. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of GREEN PLAINS RENEW and determine expected loss or profit from investing in GREEN PLAINS over a given investment horizon. Check out GREEN PLAINS Correlation, GREEN PLAINS Volatility and GREEN PLAINS Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on GREEN PLAINS.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GREEN PLAINS's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GREEN PLAINS is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GREEN PLAINS's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
GREEN PLAINS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to GREEN PLAINS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of GREEN PLAINS.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure GREEN PLAINS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess GREEN PLAINS RENEW upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for GREEN PLAINS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as GREEN PLAINS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use GREEN PLAINS historical prices to predict the future GREEN PLAINS's volatility.
GREEN PLAINS RENEW holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0734, which attests that the entity had a -0.0734% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. GREEN PLAINS RENEW exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out GREEN PLAINS's Coefficient Of Variation of (1,223), market risk adjusted performance of (0.23), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.35, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, GREEN PLAINS will likely underperform. At this point, GREEN PLAINS RENEW has a negative expected return of -0.3%. Please make sure to check out GREEN PLAINS's variance, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the standard deviation and information ratio , to decide if GREEN PLAINS RENEW performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation
-0.24
Weak reverse predictability
GREEN PLAINS RENEW has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between GREEN PLAINS time series from 8th of December 2024 to 23rd of December 2024 and 23rd of December 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of GREEN PLAINS RENEW price movement. The serial correlation of -0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current GREEN PLAINS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.24
Spearman Rank Test
-0.29
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
0.11
GREEN PLAINS RENEW lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is GREEN PLAINS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting GREEN PLAINS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of GREEN PLAINS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that GREEN PLAINS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
GREEN PLAINS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If GREEN PLAINS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if GREEN PLAINS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in GREEN PLAINS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
GREEN PLAINS Lagged Returns
When evaluating GREEN PLAINS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of GREEN PLAINS stock have on its future price. GREEN PLAINS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, GREEN PLAINS autocorrelation shows the relationship between GREEN PLAINS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in GREEN PLAINS RENEW.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
GREEN PLAINS financial ratios help investors to determine whether GREEN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GREEN with respect to the benefits of owning GREEN PLAINS security.