1st Summit Bancorp Stock Market Value
| FSMK Stock | USD 24.25 0.55 2.22% |
| Symbol | 1ST |
1ST SUMMIT 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of 1ST SUMMIT.
| 03/12/2023 |
| 03/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in 1ST SUMMIT on March 12, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP or generate 0.0% return on investment in 1ST SUMMIT over 720 days. 1ST SUMMIT is related to or competes with Apollo Bancorp, Oregon Pacific, Farmers Bank, Community Bankers, CCSB Financial, Bank of Utica, and Delhi Bank. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for 1ST SUMMIT BANK that provides various ban... More
1ST SUMMIT Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.57 |
1ST SUMMIT Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for 1ST SUMMIT's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as 1ST SUMMIT's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use 1ST SUMMIT historical prices to predict the future 1ST SUMMIT's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.9239 |
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP Backtested Returns
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which signifies that the company had a -0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm 1ST SUMMIT's Standard Deviation of 1.84, risk adjusted performance of (0.06), and Mean Deviation of 0.8885 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.19, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning 1ST SUMMIT are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, 1ST SUMMIT is likely to outperform the market. At this point, 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP has a negative expected return of -0.21%. Please make sure to confirm 1ST SUMMIT's total risk alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and price action indicator , to decide if 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | 0.50 |
Modest predictability
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between 1ST SUMMIT time series from 12th of March 2023 to 6th of March 2024 and 6th of March 2024 to 1st of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP price movement. The serial correlation of 0.5 indicates that about 50.0% of current 1ST SUMMIT price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.5 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.5 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.84 |
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of 1ST SUMMIT returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that 1ST SUMMIT has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
1ST SUMMIT regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
1ST SUMMIT Lagged Returns
When evaluating 1ST SUMMIT's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet have on its future price. 1ST SUMMIT autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, 1ST SUMMIT autocorrelation shows the relationship between 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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1ST SUMMIT financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1ST Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1ST with respect to the benefits of owning 1ST SUMMIT security.