First National Financial Stock Market Value
| FN Stock | CAD 44.04 0.07 0.16% |
| Symbol | First |
First National Financial Price To Book Ratio
First National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First National's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First National.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First National on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First National Financial or generate 0.0% return on investment in First National over 30 days. First National is related to or competes with Exchange Income, Atrium Mortgage, Equitable, Timbercreek Financial, and Fiera Capital. First National Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, originates, underwrites, and services residential and co... More
First National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First National's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First National Financial upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9744 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1831 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.75 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.58 |
First National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First National historical prices to predict the future First National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2629 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.267 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1416 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1622 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.95 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First National Financial Backtested Returns
First National appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. First National Financial secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.37, which denotes the company had a 0.37% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First National Financial, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize First National's Downside Deviation of 0.9744, coefficient of variation of 292.02, and Mean Deviation of 0.6545 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First National holds a performance score of 29. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.15, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First National's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First National is expected to be smaller as well. Please check First National's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether First National's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.85 |
Very good predictability
First National Financial has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First National time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First National Financial price movement. The serial correlation of 0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current First National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.85 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.74 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.24 |
First National Financial lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First National stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First National's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First National stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First National stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First National stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First National Lagged Returns
When evaluating First National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First National stock have on its future price. First National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First National autocorrelation shows the relationship between First National stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First National Financial.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with First National
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First National position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First National will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with First Stock
Moving against First Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First National could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First National when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First National - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First National Financial to buy it.
The correlation of First National is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First National moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First National Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First National can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in First Stock
First National financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First National security.