Federated Municipal Ultrashort Fund Market Value
| FMUSX Fund | USD 10.00 0.01 0.10% |
| Symbol | Federated |
Federated Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federated Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federated Municipal.
| 11/22/2024 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federated Municipal on November 22, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federated Municipal Ultrashort or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federated Municipal over 30 days. Federated Municipal is related to or competes with Federated Emerging, Federated Mdt, Federated Mdt, Federated Global, Federated Hermes, Federated Strategic, and Federated Strategic. The fund will invest at least 65 percent of its assets in securities rated investment-grade without regard to the maturi... More
Federated Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federated Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federated Municipal Ultrashort upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1474 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.33) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5018 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1005 |
Federated Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federated Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federated Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federated Municipal historical prices to predict the future Federated Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.08 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated Municipal Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Federated Mutual Fund to be very steady. Federated Municipal secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0784, which denotes the fund had a 0.0784% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Federated Municipal Ultrashort, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Federated Municipal's Mean Deviation of 0.038, standard deviation of 0.0784, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1284.36 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0062%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0036, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Federated Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Federated Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.78 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Federated Municipal Ultrashort has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federated Municipal time series from 22nd of November 2024 to 7th of December 2024 and 7th of December 2024 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federated Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of -0.78 indicates that around 78.0% of current Federated Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.78 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.78 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Federated Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federated Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federated Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federated Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federated Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federated Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federated Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federated Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federated Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federated Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federated Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federated Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Federated Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federated Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federated Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federated Municipal Ultrashort.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Federated Mutual Fund
Federated Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Municipal security.
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