First Keystone Corp Stock Market Value
| FKYS Stock | USD 14.15 0.15 1.07% |
| Symbol | First |
First Keystone 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Keystone's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Keystone.
| 11/06/2023 |
| 12/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Keystone on November 6, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Keystone Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Keystone over 420 days. First Keystone is related to or competes with Citizens Financial, Farmers Bancorp, Alpine Banks, and First Financial. First Keystone Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Keystone Community Bank that provides various ... More
First Keystone Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Keystone's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Keystone Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0897 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 22.31 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.73 |
First Keystone Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Keystone's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Keystone's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Keystone historical prices to predict the future First Keystone's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0868 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3041 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.227 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1031 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4687 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Keystone's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Keystone Corp Backtested Returns
First Keystone appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. First Keystone Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which denotes the company had a 0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First Keystone Corp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize First Keystone's Mean Deviation of 2.12, coefficient of variation of 1005.98, and Downside Deviation of 2.88 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First Keystone holds a performance score of 7. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.68, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First Keystone's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Keystone is expected to be smaller as well. Please check First Keystone's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and price action indicator , to make a quick decision on whether First Keystone's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.24 |
Weak reverse predictability
First Keystone Corp has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Keystone time series from 6th of November 2023 to 3rd of June 2024 and 3rd of June 2024 to 30th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Keystone Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current First Keystone price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.84 |
First Keystone Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Keystone pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Keystone's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Keystone returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Keystone has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Keystone regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Keystone pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Keystone pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Keystone pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Keystone Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Keystone's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Keystone pink sheet have on its future price. First Keystone autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Keystone autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Keystone pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Keystone Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for First Pink Sheet Analysis
When running First Keystone's price analysis, check to measure First Keystone's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Keystone is operating at the current time. Most of First Keystone's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Keystone's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Keystone's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Keystone to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.