FirstGroup Plc (Germany) Market Value
| FGR Stock | EUR 1.86 0.01 0.54% |
| Symbol | FirstGroup |
FirstGroup Plc 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to FirstGroup Plc's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of FirstGroup Plc.
| 12/21/2022 |
| 12/10/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in FirstGroup Plc on December 21, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding FirstGroup plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in FirstGroup Plc over 720 days. FirstGroup Plc is related to or competes with Quaker Chemical, INDO-RAMA SYNTHETIC, SHIN ETSU, Shin Etsu, X Fab, and Arrow Electronics. The companys First Student segment provides student transportation services through a fleet of approximately 44,000 yell... More
FirstGroup Plc Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure FirstGroup Plc's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess FirstGroup plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.69) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.22 |
FirstGroup Plc Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for FirstGroup Plc's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as FirstGroup Plc's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use FirstGroup Plc historical prices to predict the future FirstGroup Plc's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0129 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0427 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.35) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.03) |
FirstGroup plc Backtested Returns
At this point, FirstGroup Plc is risky. FirstGroup plc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0137, which denotes the company had a 0.0137% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for FirstGroup plc, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm FirstGroup Plc's Coefficient Of Variation of 10753.73, mean deviation of 1.35, and Downside Deviation of 2.43 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0256%. FirstGroup Plc has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.25, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning FirstGroup Plc are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, FirstGroup Plc is likely to outperform the market. FirstGroup plc right now shows a risk of 1.86%. Please confirm FirstGroup plc sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to decide if FirstGroup plc will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.5 |
Modest reverse predictability
FirstGroup plc has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between FirstGroup Plc time series from 21st of December 2022 to 16th of December 2023 and 16th of December 2023 to 10th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of FirstGroup plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.5 indicates that about 50.0% of current FirstGroup Plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.5 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
FirstGroup plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is FirstGroup Plc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting FirstGroup Plc's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of FirstGroup Plc returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that FirstGroup Plc has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
FirstGroup Plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If FirstGroup Plc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if FirstGroup Plc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in FirstGroup Plc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
FirstGroup Plc Lagged Returns
When evaluating FirstGroup Plc's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of FirstGroup Plc stock have on its future price. FirstGroup Plc autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, FirstGroup Plc autocorrelation shows the relationship between FirstGroup Plc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in FirstGroup plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in FirstGroup Stock
FirstGroup Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether FirstGroup Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FirstGroup with respect to the benefits of owning FirstGroup Plc security.