First Trust Specialty Fund Market Value

FGB Fund  USD 4.15  0.03  0.73%   
First Trust's market value is the price at which a share of First Trust trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of First Trust Specialty investors about its performance. First Trust is trading at 4.15 as of the 15th of March 2025, a 0.73 percent increase since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 4.12.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of First Trust Specialty and determine expected loss or profit from investing in First Trust over a given investment horizon. Check out First Trust Correlation, First Trust Volatility and First Trust Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Trust.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between First Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

First Trust 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Trust's fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Trust.
0.00
12/15/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 31 days
03/15/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in First Trust on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Trust Specialty or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Trust over 90 days. First Trust is related to or competes with MFS High, MFS High, Blackrock Muniholdings, MFS Government, Pioneer Municipal, Invesco High, and Angel Oak. First Trust Specialty Finance and Financial Opportunities Fund is a closed-ended equity mutual fund launched and managed... More

First Trust Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Trust's fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Trust Specialty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

First Trust Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Trust's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Trust's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Trust historical prices to predict the future First Trust's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.934.155.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.964.185.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Trust. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Trust's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Trust's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Trust Specialty.

First Trust Specialty Backtested Returns

First Trust Specialty secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0137, which denotes the fund had a -0.0137 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Trust Specialty exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Trust's Variance of 1.42, standard deviation of 1.19, and Mean Deviation of 0.9088 to check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.11, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Trust's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Trust is expected to be smaller as well.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.32  

Poor reverse predictability

First Trust Specialty has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Trust time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Trust Specialty price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current First Trust price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.32
Spearman Rank Test0.0
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.01

First Trust Specialty lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is First Trust fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Trust's fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Trust returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Trust has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

First Trust regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Trust fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Trust fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Trust fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

First Trust Lagged Returns

When evaluating First Trust's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Trust fund have on its future price. First Trust autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Trust autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Trust fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Trust Specialty.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in First Fund

First Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Trust security.
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