First Solar (Germany) Market Value
| F3A Stock | 124.64 0.16 0.13% |
| Symbol | First |
First Solar 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Solar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Solar.
| 12/13/2024 |
| 03/13/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Solar on December 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Solar or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Solar over 90 days.
First Solar Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Solar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Solar upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.67) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.58 |
First Solar Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Solar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Solar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Solar historical prices to predict the future First Solar's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.18) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.67) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.95 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Solar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Solar Backtested Returns
First Solar secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.23, which denotes the company had a -0.23 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Solar exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Solar's Standard Deviation of 2.79, mean deviation of 1.97, and Variance of 7.81 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.32, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Solar are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Solar is likely to outperform the market. At this point, First Solar has a negative expected return of -0.65%. Please make sure to confirm First Solar's accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and day median price , to decide if First Solar performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.55 |
Modest predictability
First Solar has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Solar time series from 13th of December 2024 to 27th of January 2025 and 27th of January 2025 to 13th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Solar price movement. The serial correlation of 0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current First Solar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 108.75 |
First Solar lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Solar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Solar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Solar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Solar has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Solar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Solar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Solar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Solar stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Solar Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Solar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Solar stock have on its future price. First Solar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Solar autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Solar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Solar.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Solar's price analysis, check to measure First Solar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Solar is operating at the current time. Most of First Solar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Solar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Solar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Solar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.