Erajaya Swasembada (Indonesia) Market Value
| ERAA Stock | IDR 384.00 6.00 1.54% |
| Symbol | Erajaya |
Erajaya Swasembada 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Erajaya Swasembada's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Erajaya Swasembada.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Erajaya Swasembada on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Erajaya Swasembada Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Erajaya Swasembada over 90 days. Erajaya Swasembada is related to or competes with Ace Hardware, Japfa Comfeed, XL Axiata, Pembangunan Perumahan, and Media Nusantara. More
Erajaya Swasembada Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Erajaya Swasembada's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Erajaya Swasembada Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0237 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.14 |
Erajaya Swasembada Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Erajaya Swasembada's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Erajaya Swasembada's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Erajaya Swasembada historical prices to predict the future Erajaya Swasembada's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0048 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4384 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0463 |
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk Backtested Returns
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0146, which denotes the company had a -0.0146 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Erajaya Swasembada Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Erajaya Swasembada's Coefficient Of Variation of (30,435), standard deviation of 3.68, and Mean Deviation of 2.38 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.48, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Erajaya Swasembada are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Erajaya Swasembada is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Erajaya Swasembada Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.0564%. Please make sure to confirm Erajaya Swasembada's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Erajaya Swasembada Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Erajaya Swasembada time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Erajaya Swasembada Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Erajaya Swasembada price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.33 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 711.09 |
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Erajaya Swasembada stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Erajaya Swasembada's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Erajaya Swasembada returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Erajaya Swasembada has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Erajaya Swasembada regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Erajaya Swasembada stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Erajaya Swasembada stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Erajaya Swasembada stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Erajaya Swasembada Lagged Returns
When evaluating Erajaya Swasembada's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Erajaya Swasembada stock have on its future price. Erajaya Swasembada autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Erajaya Swasembada autocorrelation shows the relationship between Erajaya Swasembada stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Erajaya Swasembada Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Erajaya Swasembada financial ratios help investors to determine whether Erajaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Erajaya with respect to the benefits of owning Erajaya Swasembada security.