Dreyfus Municipal Bond Fund Market Value
| DMBYX Fund | USD 12.06 0.06 0.50% |
| Symbol | Dreyfus |
Dreyfus Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Dreyfus Municipal.
| 12/11/2024 |
| 01/10/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Dreyfus Municipal on December 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dreyfus Municipal Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dreyfus Municipal over 30 days. Dreyfus Municipal is related to or competes with Dreyfus High, Dreyfusthe Boston, Dreyfus International, Dreyfus International, Dreyfus International, Dreyfus International, and Dreyfus Short. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus any borrowings for investment purposes, in municip... More
Dreyfus Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Dreyfus Municipal Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4149 |
Dreyfus Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Dreyfus Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Dreyfus Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Dreyfus Municipal historical prices to predict the future Dreyfus Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.25) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dreyfus Municipal Bond Backtested Returns
Dreyfus Municipal Bond secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0572, which denotes the fund had a -0.0572% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Dreyfus Municipal Bond exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Dreyfus Municipal's Mean Deviation of 0.1876, standard deviation of 0.2899, and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,183) to check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0277, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Dreyfus Municipal's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Dreyfus Municipal is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.16 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Dreyfus Municipal Bond has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dreyfus Municipal time series from 11th of December 2024 to 26th of December 2024 and 26th of December 2024 to 10th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dreyfus Municipal Bond price movement. The serial correlation of -0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current Dreyfus Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.16 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Dreyfus Municipal Bond lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Dreyfus Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Dreyfus Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Dreyfus Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Dreyfus Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Dreyfus Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Dreyfus Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Dreyfus Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Dreyfus Municipal Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund
Dreyfus Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dreyfus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dreyfus with respect to the benefits of owning Dreyfus Municipal security.
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