CITIC (Germany) Market Value
| CPF Stock | 1.06 0.03 2.91% |
| Symbol | CITIC |
CITIC 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to CITIC's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of CITIC.
| 12/09/2024 |
| 01/08/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in CITIC on December 9, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding CITIC or generate 0.0% return on investment in CITIC over 30 days.
CITIC Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure CITIC's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess CITIC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0107 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.41 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.67 |
CITIC Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for CITIC's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as CITIC's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use CITIC historical prices to predict the future CITIC's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0233 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0675 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0099 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.06) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CITIC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CITIC Backtested Returns
Currently, CITIC is very risky. CITIC secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0022, which signifies that the company had a 0.0022% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for CITIC, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm CITIC's mean deviation of 1.97, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0233 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0045%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.9, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning CITIC are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, CITIC is expected to outperform it slightly. CITIC now shows a risk of 2.04%. Please confirm CITIC expected short fall, day median price, and the relationship between the potential upside and accumulation distribution , to decide if CITIC will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.73 |
Good predictability
CITIC has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between CITIC time series from 9th of December 2024 to 24th of December 2024 and 24th of December 2024 to 8th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of CITIC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current CITIC price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
CITIC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is CITIC stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting CITIC's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of CITIC returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that CITIC has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
CITIC regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If CITIC stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if CITIC stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in CITIC stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
CITIC Lagged Returns
When evaluating CITIC's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of CITIC stock have on its future price. CITIC autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, CITIC autocorrelation shows the relationship between CITIC stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in CITIC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for CITIC Stock Analysis
When running CITIC's price analysis, check to measure CITIC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CITIC is operating at the current time. Most of CITIC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CITIC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CITIC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CITIC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.