Trip Group (Germany) Market Value
| CLV Stock | EUR 61.00 0.80 1.33% |
| Symbol | Trip |
Trip Group 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Trip Group's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Trip Group.
| 06/05/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Trip Group on June 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Trip Group Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Trip Group over 180 days. Trip Group is related to or competes with WIMFARM SA, Sterling Construction, HYDROFARM HLD, G8 EDUCATION, STRAYER EDUCATION, Laureate Education, and DEVRY EDUCATION. Ctrip.com International, Ltd. operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticket... More
Trip Group Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Trip Group's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Trip Group Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1212 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.88 |
Trip Group Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Trip Group's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Trip Group's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Trip Group historical prices to predict the future Trip Group's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1287 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5009 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1459 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.9104 |
Trip Group Limited Backtested Returns
Trip Group appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Trip Group Limited owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.17, which indicates the firm had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Trip Group's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.63% is justified by implied risk. Please review Trip Group's Semi Deviation of 2.66, risk adjusted performance of 0.1287, and Coefficient Of Variation of 633.3 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Trip Group holds a performance score of 13. The entity has a beta of 0.64, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Trip Group's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Trip Group is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Trip Group's sortino ratio, potential upside, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Trip Group's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
Trip Group Limited has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Trip Group time series from 5th of June 2024 to 3rd of September 2024 and 3rd of September 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Trip Group Limited price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Trip Group price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 53.81 |
Trip Group Limited lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Trip Group stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Trip Group's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Trip Group returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Trip Group has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Trip Group regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Trip Group stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Trip Group stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Trip Group stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Trip Group Lagged Returns
When evaluating Trip Group's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Trip Group stock have on its future price. Trip Group autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Trip Group autocorrelation shows the relationship between Trip Group stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Trip Group Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Trip Stock
Trip Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trip Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trip with respect to the benefits of owning Trip Group security.