Cencosud (Chile) Market Value
| CENCOSUD | CLP 2,050 28.00 1.35% |
| Symbol | Cencosud |
Cencosud 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Cencosud's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Cencosud.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Cencosud on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Cencosud or generate 0.0% return on investment in Cencosud over 30 days. Cencosud is related to or competes with Falabella, Empresas Copec, Sociedad Qumica, Banco Santander, and LATAM Airlines. Cencosud S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-brand retailer in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,... More
Cencosud Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Cencosud's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Cencosud upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0133 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.99) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.48 |
Cencosud Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Cencosud's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Cencosud's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Cencosud historical prices to predict the future Cencosud's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0909 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.173 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0128 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.69) |
Cencosud Backtested Returns
Currently, Cencosud is very steady. Cencosud secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the company had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Cencosud, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Cencosud's Mean Deviation of 1.0, risk adjusted performance of 0.0909, and Downside Deviation of 1.44 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Cencosud has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.21, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Cencosud are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Cencosud is likely to outperform the market. Cencosud right now shows a risk of 1.4%. Please confirm Cencosud sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if Cencosud will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.34 |
Poor reverse predictability
Cencosud has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Cencosud time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Cencosud price movement. The serial correlation of -0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current Cencosud price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2473.43 |
Cencosud lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Cencosud stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Cencosud's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Cencosud returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Cencosud has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Cencosud regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Cencosud stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Cencosud stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Cencosud stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Cencosud Lagged Returns
When evaluating Cencosud's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Cencosud stock have on its future price. Cencosud autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Cencosud autocorrelation shows the relationship between Cencosud stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Cencosud.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Cencosud
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cencosud position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cencosud will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Cencosud Stock
Moving against Cencosud Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cencosud could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cencosud when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cencosud - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cencosud to buy it.
The correlation of Cencosud is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cencosud moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cencosud moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cencosud can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Cencosud Stock Analysis
When running Cencosud's price analysis, check to measure Cencosud's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cencosud is operating at the current time. Most of Cencosud's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cencosud's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cencosud's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cencosud to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.