Wilmar Cahaya (Indonesia) Market Value
| CEKA Stock | IDR 2,010 40.00 1.95% |
| Symbol | Wilmar |
Wilmar Cahaya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Wilmar Cahaya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Wilmar Cahaya.
| 05/13/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Wilmar Cahaya on May 13, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia or generate 0.0% return on investment in Wilmar Cahaya over 570 days. Wilmar Cahaya is related to or competes with Astra International, Unilever Indonesia, Telkom Indonesia, Bank Mandiri, and Perusahaan Gas. More
Wilmar Cahaya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Wilmar Cahaya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.95) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.31 |
Wilmar Cahaya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Wilmar Cahaya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Wilmar Cahaya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Wilmar Cahaya historical prices to predict the future Wilmar Cahaya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.19) |
Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia Backtested Returns
Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia shows Sharpe Ratio of -0.0139, which attests that the company had a -0.0139% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Wilmar Cahaya's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.18), mean deviation of 0.8217, and Standard Deviation of 1.17 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The firm maintains a market beta of 0.0976, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Wilmar Cahaya's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Wilmar Cahaya is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia has a negative expected return of -0.0165%. Please make sure to check out Wilmar Cahaya's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.8 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Wilmar Cahaya time series from 13th of May 2023 to 22nd of February 2024 and 22nd of February 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia price movement. The serial correlation of -0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current Wilmar Cahaya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.8 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.74 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 24.8 K |
Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Wilmar Cahaya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Wilmar Cahaya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Wilmar Cahaya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Wilmar Cahaya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Wilmar Cahaya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Wilmar Cahaya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Wilmar Cahaya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Wilmar Cahaya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Wilmar Cahaya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Wilmar Cahaya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Wilmar Cahaya stock have on its future price. Wilmar Cahaya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Wilmar Cahaya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Wilmar Cahaya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Wilmar Cahaya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Wilmar Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Wilmar with respect to the benefits of owning Wilmar Cahaya security.