BP Plc's market value is the price at which a share of BP Plc trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of BP plc investors about its performance. BP Plc is selling for under 134.50 as of the 4th of January 2025; that is No Change since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 134.5. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of BP plc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in BP Plc over a given investment horizon. Check out BP Plc Correlation, BP Plc Volatility and BP Plc Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on BP Plc.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BP Plc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BP Plc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BP Plc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
BP Plc 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to BP Plc's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of BP Plc.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure BP Plc's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess BP plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for BP Plc's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as BP Plc's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use BP Plc historical prices to predict the future BP Plc's volatility.
BP plc retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.12, which signifies that the company had a -0.12% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. BP Plc exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm BP Plc's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.54), variance of 2.24, and Information Ratio of (0.15) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.14, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, BP Plc's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding BP Plc is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, BP plc has a negative expected return of -0.18%. Please make sure to confirm BP Plc's coefficient of variation, variance, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if BP plc performance from the past will be repeated sooner or later.
Auto-correlation
0.25
Poor predictability
BP plc has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BP Plc time series from 5th of December 2024 to 20th of December 2024 and 20th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BP plc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current BP Plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.25
Spearman Rank Test
-0.52
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
2.94
BP plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is BP Plc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting BP Plc's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of BP Plc returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that BP Plc has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
BP Plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If BP Plc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if BP Plc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in BP Plc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
BP Plc Lagged Returns
When evaluating BP Plc's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of BP Plc stock have on its future price. BP Plc autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, BP Plc autocorrelation shows the relationship between BP Plc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in BP plc.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When running BP Plc's price analysis, check to measure BP Plc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BP Plc is operating at the current time. Most of BP Plc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BP Plc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BP Plc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BP Plc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.