Bavarian Nordic (Denmark) Market Value
| BAVA Stock | DKK 167.35 3.70 2.26% |
| Symbol | Bavarian |
Bavarian Nordic 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bavarian Nordic's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bavarian Nordic.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Bavarian Nordic on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bavarian Nordic or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bavarian Nordic over 90 days. Bavarian Nordic is related to or competes with Ambu AS, Danske Bank, Genmab AS, DSV Panalpina, and FLSmidth. Bavarian Nordic AS develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines More
Bavarian Nordic Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bavarian Nordic's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bavarian Nordic upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.49) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.3 |
Bavarian Nordic Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bavarian Nordic's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bavarian Nordic's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bavarian Nordic historical prices to predict the future Bavarian Nordic's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0688 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.88) |
Bavarian Nordic Backtested Returns
Bavarian Nordic secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.088, which signifies that the company had a -0.088 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Bavarian Nordic exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Bavarian Nordic's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07), mean deviation of 1.72, and Standard Deviation of 2.31 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.25, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Bavarian Nordic's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Bavarian Nordic is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Bavarian Nordic has a negative expected return of -0.21%. Please make sure to confirm Bavarian Nordic's value at risk, skewness, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if Bavarian Nordic performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.21 |
Weak reverse predictability
Bavarian Nordic has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bavarian Nordic time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bavarian Nordic price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Bavarian Nordic price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 69.49 |
Bavarian Nordic lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Bavarian Nordic stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bavarian Nordic's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bavarian Nordic returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bavarian Nordic has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Bavarian Nordic regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bavarian Nordic stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bavarian Nordic stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bavarian Nordic stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Bavarian Nordic Lagged Returns
When evaluating Bavarian Nordic's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bavarian Nordic stock have on its future price. Bavarian Nordic autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bavarian Nordic autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bavarian Nordic stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bavarian Nordic.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Bavarian Nordic
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bavarian Nordic position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bavarian Nordic will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Bavarian Stock
| 0.88 | ALMB | Alm Brand | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | DANSKE | Danske Bank AS | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | NDA-DK | Nordea Bank Abp | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | VJBA | Vestjysk Bank AS | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | CHEMM | ChemoMetec AS | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bavarian Nordic could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bavarian Nordic when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bavarian Nordic - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bavarian Nordic to buy it.
The correlation of Bavarian Nordic is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bavarian Nordic moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bavarian Nordic moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bavarian Nordic can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Bavarian Stock
Bavarian Nordic financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bavarian Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bavarian with respect to the benefits of owning Bavarian Nordic security.