Astra Otoparts (Indonesia) Market Value
| AUTO Stock | IDR 2,310 30.00 1.28% |
| Symbol | Astra |
Astra Otoparts 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Astra Otoparts' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Astra Otoparts.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Astra Otoparts on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Astra Otoparts Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Astra Otoparts over 720 days. Astra Otoparts is related to or competes with Gajah Tunggal, Astra Graphia, Indomobil Sukses, Astra Agro, and Bank Danamon. More
Astra Otoparts Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Astra Otoparts' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Astra Otoparts Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.0007) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.68 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.17 |
Astra Otoparts Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Astra Otoparts' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Astra Otoparts' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Astra Otoparts historical prices to predict the future Astra Otoparts' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0597 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1743 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.0009) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.33) |
Astra Otoparts Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, Astra Stock is very steady. Astra Otoparts Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0436, which signifies that the company had a 0.0436% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Astra Otoparts Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Astra Otoparts' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0597, mean deviation of 1.42, and Downside Deviation of 1.66 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0849%. Astra Otoparts has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.38, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Astra Otoparts are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Astra Otoparts is likely to outperform the market. Astra Otoparts Tbk right now shows a risk of 1.95%. Please confirm Astra Otoparts Tbk total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Astra Otoparts Tbk will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.35 |
Below average predictability
Astra Otoparts Tbk has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Astra Otoparts time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Astra Otoparts Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Astra Otoparts price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.31 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 34.1 K |
Astra Otoparts Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Astra Otoparts stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Astra Otoparts' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Astra Otoparts returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Astra Otoparts has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Astra Otoparts regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Astra Otoparts stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Astra Otoparts stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Astra Otoparts stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Astra Otoparts Lagged Returns
When evaluating Astra Otoparts' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Astra Otoparts stock have on its future price. Astra Otoparts autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Astra Otoparts autocorrelation shows the relationship between Astra Otoparts stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Astra Otoparts Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Astra Otoparts financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra Otoparts security.