Arad (Israel) Market Value
| ARD Stock | ILA 4,911 116.00 2.31% |
| Symbol | Arad |
Arad 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arad's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arad.
| 12/17/2024 |
| 03/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arad on December 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arad or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arad over 90 days. Arad is related to or competes with Analyst IMS, Azorim Investment, Harel Insurance, Scope Metals, and Veridis Environment. Arad Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells water meters worldwide More
Arad Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arad's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arad upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0139 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.25 |
Arad Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arad's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arad's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arad historical prices to predict the future Arad's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1093 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.24) |
Arad Backtested Returns
Arad secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0492, which signifies that the company had a -0.0492 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Arad exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arad's mean deviation of 1.18, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.36, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Arad's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arad is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Arad has a negative expected return of -0.0772%. Please make sure to confirm Arad's coefficient of variation, value at risk, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and kurtosis , to decide if Arad performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.22 |
Weak reverse predictability
Arad has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arad time series from 17th of December 2024 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 17th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arad price movement. The serial correlation of -0.22 indicates that over 22.0% of current Arad price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.22 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7616.49 |
Arad lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arad stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arad's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arad returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arad has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arad regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arad stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arad stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arad stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arad Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arad's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arad stock have on its future price. Arad autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arad autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arad stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arad.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Arad Stock
Arad financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arad Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arad with respect to the benefits of owning Arad security.