Arcelik AS (Turkey) Market Value
| ARCLK Stock | TRY 142.80 0.20 0.14% |
| Symbol | Arcelik |
Arcelik AS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arcelik AS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arcelik AS.
| 06/07/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arcelik AS on June 7, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arcelik AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arcelik AS over 180 days. Arcelik AS is related to or competes with Turkiye Sise, Turkiye Petrol, Tofas Turk, Eregli Demir, and Ford Otomotiv. Arelik Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, produces, markets, sells, services, imports, and exports consumer... More
Arcelik AS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arcelik AS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arcelik AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.81) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.04 |
Arcelik AS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arcelik AS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arcelik AS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arcelik AS historical prices to predict the future Arcelik AS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.32) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.06) |
Arcelik AS Backtested Returns
Arcelik AS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0015, which signifies that the company had a -0.0015% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Arcelik AS exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arcelik AS's mean deviation of 1.69, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.0E-4 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.5, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Arcelik AS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arcelik AS is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Arcelik AS has a negative expected return of -0.0032%. Please make sure to confirm Arcelik AS's standard deviation, kurtosis, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and day median price , to decide if Arcelik AS performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.43 |
Average predictability
Arcelik AS has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arcelik AS time series from 7th of June 2024 to 5th of September 2024 and 5th of September 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arcelik AS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current Arcelik AS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.43 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 29.57 |
Arcelik AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arcelik AS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arcelik AS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arcelik AS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arcelik AS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arcelik AS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arcelik AS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arcelik AS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arcelik AS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arcelik AS Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arcelik AS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arcelik AS stock have on its future price. Arcelik AS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arcelik AS autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arcelik AS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arcelik AS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Arcelik Stock
Arcelik AS financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arcelik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arcelik with respect to the benefits of owning Arcelik AS security.