Aspen Pharmacare (South Africa) Market Value
| APN Stock | 17,378 831.00 5.02% |
| Symbol | Aspen |
Aspen Pharmacare 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aspen Pharmacare's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aspen Pharmacare.
| 01/02/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aspen Pharmacare on January 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aspen Pharmacare Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aspen Pharmacare over 720 days. Aspen Pharmacare is related to or competes with Frontier Transport, RCL Foods, Allied Electronics, CA Sales, AfroCentric Investment, and Brimstone Investment. More
Aspen Pharmacare Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aspen Pharmacare's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aspen Pharmacare Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.64 |
Aspen Pharmacare Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aspen Pharmacare's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aspen Pharmacare's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aspen Pharmacare historical prices to predict the future Aspen Pharmacare's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 22.41 |
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Backtested Returns
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which signifies that the company had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aspen Pharmacare Holdings exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aspen Pharmacare's Standard Deviation of 1.26, mean deviation of 0.8494, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0063, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aspen Pharmacare are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aspen Pharmacare is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Aspen Pharmacare Holdings has a negative expected return of -0.14%. Please make sure to confirm Aspen Pharmacare's treynor ratio, skewness, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and accumulation distribution , to decide if Aspen Pharmacare Holdings performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.21 |
Weak predictability
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aspen Pharmacare time series from 2nd of January 2023 to 28th of December 2023 and 28th of December 2023 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of 0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Aspen Pharmacare price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.6 M |
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aspen Pharmacare stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aspen Pharmacare's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aspen Pharmacare returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aspen Pharmacare has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aspen Pharmacare regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aspen Pharmacare stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aspen Pharmacare stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aspen Pharmacare stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aspen Pharmacare Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aspen Pharmacare's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aspen Pharmacare stock have on its future price. Aspen Pharmacare autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aspen Pharmacare autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aspen Pharmacare stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aspen Pharmacare Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Aspen Stock
Aspen Pharmacare financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aspen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aspen with respect to the benefits of owning Aspen Pharmacare security.