Alfas Solar (Turkey) Market Value
| ALFAS Stock | 62.95 1.65 2.69% |
| Symbol | Alfas |
Alfas Solar 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alfas Solar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alfas Solar.
| 11/21/2024 |
| 12/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alfas Solar on November 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alfas Solar Enerji or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alfas Solar over 30 days. Alfas Solar is related to or competes with Smart Gunes, Turkiye Petrol, Koza Anadolu, Silverline Endustri, Gentas Genel, and Koc Holding. More
Alfas Solar Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alfas Solar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alfas Solar Enerji upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.68 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0771 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.04) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.34 |
Alfas Solar Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alfas Solar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alfas Solar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alfas Solar historical prices to predict the future Alfas Solar's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0768 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2674 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.174 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0889 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.84) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alfas Solar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alfas Solar Enerji Backtested Returns
Alfas Solar appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Alfas Solar Enerji secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0923, which signifies that the company had a 0.0923% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Alfas Solar Enerji, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Alfas Solar's mean deviation of 2.25, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0768 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Alfas Solar holds a performance score of 7. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.31, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alfas Solar are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Alfas Solar is likely to outperform the market. Please check Alfas Solar's standard deviation, expected short fall, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Alfas Solar's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.88 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Alfas Solar Enerji has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alfas Solar time series from 21st of November 2024 to 6th of December 2024 and 6th of December 2024 to 21st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alfas Solar Enerji price movement. The serial correlation of -0.88 indicates that approximately 88.0% of current Alfas Solar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.88 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.49 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.74 |
Alfas Solar Enerji lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alfas Solar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alfas Solar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alfas Solar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alfas Solar has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alfas Solar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alfas Solar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alfas Solar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alfas Solar stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alfas Solar Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alfas Solar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alfas Solar stock have on its future price. Alfas Solar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alfas Solar autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alfas Solar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alfas Solar Enerji.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Alfas Stock
Alfas Solar financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alfas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alfas with respect to the benefits of owning Alfas Solar security.