Alarko Carrier (Turkey) Market Value
| ALCAR Stock | TRY 992.00 18.00 1.78% |
| Symbol | Alarko |
Alarko Carrier 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alarko Carrier's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alarko Carrier.
| 12/23/2022 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alarko Carrier on December 23, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alarko Carrier Sanayi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alarko Carrier over 720 days. Alarko Carrier is related to or competes with CEO Event, Galatasaray Sportif, Koza Anadolu, and Gentas Genel. Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. manufactures and sells products and services in the areas of heating, cooling, air... More
Alarko Carrier Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alarko Carrier's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alarko Carrier Sanayi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.33 |
Alarko Carrier Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alarko Carrier's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alarko Carrier's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alarko Carrier historical prices to predict the future Alarko Carrier's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.25) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.53) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.41) |
Alarko Carrier Sanayi Backtested Returns
Alarko Carrier Sanayi secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0691, which signifies that the company had a -0.0691% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Alarko Carrier Sanayi exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Alarko Carrier's mean deviation of 1.61, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.48, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Alarko Carrier's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alarko Carrier is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Alarko Carrier Sanayi has a negative expected return of -0.15%. Please make sure to confirm Alarko Carrier's standard deviation, kurtosis, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and day median price , to decide if Alarko Carrier Sanayi performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.73 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Alarko Carrier Sanayi has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alarko Carrier time series from 23rd of December 2022 to 18th of December 2023 and 18th of December 2023 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alarko Carrier Sanayi price movement. The serial correlation of -0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Alarko Carrier price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.3 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 56.6 K |
Alarko Carrier Sanayi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alarko Carrier stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alarko Carrier's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alarko Carrier returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alarko Carrier has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alarko Carrier regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alarko Carrier stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alarko Carrier stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alarko Carrier stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alarko Carrier Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alarko Carrier's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alarko Carrier stock have on its future price. Alarko Carrier autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alarko Carrier autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alarko Carrier stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alarko Carrier Sanayi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Alarko Stock
Alarko Carrier financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alarko Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alarko with respect to the benefits of owning Alarko Carrier security.