Alarko Holding (Turkey) Market Value
| ALARK Stock | TRY 94.70 0.65 0.69% |
| Symbol | Alarko |
Alarko Holding 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alarko Holding's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alarko Holding.
| 11/28/2023 |
| 12/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alarko Holding on November 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alarko Holding AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alarko Holding over 390 days. Alarko Holding is related to or competes with Eregli Demir, Turkiye Petrol, Turkish Airlines, Ford Otomotiv, and Koc Holding. Alarko Holding A.S. engages in the contracting, construction, land development, industry, trade, tourism, and energy bus... More
Alarko Holding Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alarko Holding's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alarko Holding AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.86) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.24 |
Alarko Holding Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alarko Holding's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alarko Holding's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alarko Holding historical prices to predict the future Alarko Holding's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0105 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0014 |
Alarko Holding AS Backtested Returns
Alarko Holding is very steady at the moment. Alarko Holding AS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0244, which signifies that the company had a 0.0244% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Alarko Holding AS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Alarko Holding's mean deviation of 1.53, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0105 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0505%. Alarko Holding has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.92, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Alarko Holding returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Alarko Holding is expected to follow. Alarko Holding AS right now shows a risk of 2.07%. Please confirm Alarko Holding AS value at risk, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and expected short fall , to decide if Alarko Holding AS will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.82 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Alarko Holding AS has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alarko Holding time series from 28th of November 2023 to 10th of June 2024 and 10th of June 2024 to 22nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alarko Holding AS price movement. The serial correlation of -0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current Alarko Holding price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.23 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 54.97 |
Alarko Holding AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alarko Holding stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alarko Holding's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alarko Holding returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alarko Holding has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alarko Holding regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alarko Holding stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alarko Holding stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alarko Holding stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alarko Holding Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alarko Holding's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alarko Holding stock have on its future price. Alarko Holding autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alarko Holding autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alarko Holding stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alarko Holding AS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Alarko Stock
Alarko Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alarko Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alarko with respect to the benefits of owning Alarko Holding security.