AIRTEL MALAWI (Malawi) Market Value
| AIRTEL Stock | 100.00 2.76 2.84% |
| Symbol | AIRTEL |
AIRTEL MALAWI 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AIRTEL MALAWI's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AIRTEL MALAWI.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AIRTEL MALAWI on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AIRTEL MALAWI PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in AIRTEL MALAWI over 30 days.
AIRTEL MALAWI Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AIRTEL MALAWI's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AIRTEL MALAWI PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.0284 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3813 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.48 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.78 |
AIRTEL MALAWI Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AIRTEL MALAWI's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AIRTEL MALAWI's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AIRTEL MALAWI historical prices to predict the future AIRTEL MALAWI's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3307 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.32 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.8042 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 39.91 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.13) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AIRTEL MALAWI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AIRTEL MALAWI PLC Backtested Returns
AIRTEL MALAWI is very steady given 3 months investment horizon. AIRTEL MALAWI PLC secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.43, which signifies that the company had a 0.43% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate and analyze data for twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.3% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use AIRTEL MALAWI risk adjusted performance of 0.3307, and Mean Deviation of 1.94 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. AIRTEL MALAWI holds a performance score of 33 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.59, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AIRTEL MALAWI are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AIRTEL MALAWI is likely to outperform the market. Use AIRTEL MALAWI semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to analyze future returns on AIRTEL MALAWI.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
AIRTEL MALAWI PLC has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AIRTEL MALAWI time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AIRTEL MALAWI PLC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current AIRTEL MALAWI price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 1.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 61.74 |
AIRTEL MALAWI PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AIRTEL MALAWI stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AIRTEL MALAWI's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AIRTEL MALAWI returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AIRTEL MALAWI has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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AIRTEL MALAWI regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AIRTEL MALAWI stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AIRTEL MALAWI stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AIRTEL MALAWI stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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AIRTEL MALAWI Lagged Returns
When evaluating AIRTEL MALAWI's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AIRTEL MALAWI stock have on its future price. AIRTEL MALAWI autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AIRTEL MALAWI autocorrelation shows the relationship between AIRTEL MALAWI stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AIRTEL MALAWI PLC.
Regressed Prices |
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