Adobe (Germany) Market Value
| ADB Stock | 416.45 19.90 4.56% |
| Symbol | Adobe |
Adobe 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Adobe's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Adobe.
| 11/05/2024 |
| 01/04/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Adobe on November 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Adobe Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Adobe over 60 days.
Adobe Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Adobe's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Adobe Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.19 |
Adobe Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Adobe's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Adobe's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Adobe historical prices to predict the future Adobe's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.23) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adobe's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adobe Inc Backtested Returns
Adobe Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0359, which signifies that the company had a -0.0359% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Adobe Inc exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Adobe's Mean Deviation of 1.49, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Standard Deviation of 2.39 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.59, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Adobe's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Adobe is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Adobe Inc has a negative expected return of -0.0883%. Please make sure to confirm Adobe's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and day typical price , to decide if Adobe Inc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.61 |
Very good reverse predictability
Adobe Inc has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Adobe time series from 5th of November 2024 to 5th of December 2024 and 5th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Adobe Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Adobe price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1629.83 |
Adobe Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Adobe stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Adobe's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Adobe returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Adobe has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Adobe regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Adobe stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Adobe stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Adobe stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Adobe Lagged Returns
When evaluating Adobe's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Adobe stock have on its future price. Adobe autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Adobe autocorrelation shows the relationship between Adobe stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Adobe Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for Adobe Stock Analysis
When running Adobe's price analysis, check to measure Adobe's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adobe is operating at the current time. Most of Adobe's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adobe's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adobe's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adobe to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.